Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 19 2020 | 1527 | 21008 | 47 | 6 | 490 | 622 |
| September 20 2020 | 1586 | 21014 | 47 | 6 | 526 | 645 |
| September 21 2020 | 1617 | 21015 | 47 | 6 | 519 | 640 |
| September 22 2020 | 1650 | 21086 | 49 | 6 | 479 | 650 |
| September 23 2020 | 1703 | 21300 | 49 | 6 | 471 | 666 |
| September 24 2020 | 1734 | 21415 | 50 | 6 | 475 | 674 |
| September 25 2020 | 1776 | 21730 | 48 | 6 | 490 | 678 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.3 | 3.3% | 16 | 0.14% | 18 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 9.0 | 22.4% | 110 | 0.81% | 148 | 1.09% |
| 20-29 | 17 | 19.0 | 47.6% | 233 | 1.11% | 349 | 1.67% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 5.1 | 10% | 49 | 0.36% | 57 | 0.42% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 2.6 | 6.1% | 30 | 0.29% | 35 | 0.33% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 2.7 | 4.7% | 23 | 0.18% | 29 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.7 | 3.5% | 17 | 0.15% | 27 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.4 | 2.4% | 12 | 0.11% | 15 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 42 | 42.9 | 100% | 490 | 0.47% | 678 | 0.65% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 19 2020 | 466 | 13490 | 18 | 0 | 77 | 90 |
| September 20 2020 | 476 | 13728 | 18 | 0 | 81 | 98 |
| September 21 2020 | 480 | 13887 | 18 | 0 | 77 | 98 |
| September 22 2020 | 482 | 13929 | 18 | 0 | 73 | 97 |
| September 23 2020 | 489 | 14088 | 18 | 0 | 71 | 100 |
| September 24 2020 | 498 | 14231 | 19 | 0 | 78 | 103 |
| September 25 2020 | 517 | 14248 | 19 | 0 | 94 | 114 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.05% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 1.9 | 22.3% | 21 | 0.25% | 23 | 0.27% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 1.7 | 23.4% | 22 | 0.31% | 30 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.4 | 10.6% | 10 | 0.12% | 11 | 0.13% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 1.7 | 14.9% | 14 | 0.18% | 16 | 0.21% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 1.7 | 17% | 16 | 0.16% | 22 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.7 | 6.4% | 6 | 0.07% | 6 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| All ages | 19 | 8.7 | 100% | 94 | 0.15% | 114 | 0.18% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 19 2020 | 411 | 8357 | 20 | 4 | 18 | 26 |
| September 20 2020 | 420 | 8356 | 20 | 4 | 26 | 32 |
| September 21 2020 | 420 | 8356 | 20 | 4 | 26 | 28 |
| September 22 2020 | 422 | 8495 | 20 | 4 | 27 | 29 |
| September 23 2020 | 425 | 8564 | 20 | 4 | 29 | 32 |
| September 24 2020 | 437 | 8691 | 21 | 4 | 39 | 43 |
| September 25 2020 | 444 | 8818 | 21 | 4 | 43 | 50 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 19 2020 | 2475 | 23739 | 41 | 2 | 1105 | 1163 |
| September 20 2020 | 2568 | 23777 | 41 | 2 | 1123 | 1242 |
| September 21 2020 | 2622 | 23848 | 41 | 2 | 1099 | 1285 |
| September 22 2020 | 2698 | 24155 | 43 | 2 | 1073 | 1347 |
| September 23 2020 | 2785 | 24410 | 44 | 2 | 1031 | 1415 |
| September 24 2020 | 2838 | 24651 | 44 | 2 | 1039 | 1393 |
| September 25 2020 | 2946 | 24857 | 45 | 2 | 1057 | 1423 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.4% | 4 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 24 | 23.9 | 34% | 359 | 2.17% | 499 | 3.01% |
| 20-29 | 44 | 38.0 | 47.1% | 498 | 2.34% | 679 | 3.19% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 4.9 | 4.4% | 47 | 0.35% | 59 | 0.43% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 3.7 | 4.1% | 43 | 0.32% | 54 | 0.4% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 3.3 | 3.1% | 33 | 0.23% | 39 | 0.27% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 3.4 | 3.1% | 33 | 0.23% | 40 | 0.28% |
| 70+ | 2 | 4.0 | 3.8% | 40 | 0.31% | 50 | 0.38% |
| All ages | 108 | 81.6 | 100% | 1057 | 0.89% | 1423 | 1.2% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 19 2020 | 8635 | 184706 | 350 | 41 | 2146 | 2674 |
| September 20 2020 | 8815 | 186173 | 352 | 41 | 1844 | 2697 |
| September 21 2020 | 8895 | 187412 | 352 | 41 | 1641 | 2687 |
| September 22 2020 | 8947 | 190377 | 353 | 41 | 1558 | 2520 |
| September 23 2020 | 9040 | 191786 | 354 | 41 | 1418 | 2551 |
| September 24 2020 | 9203 | 192910 | 357 | 41 | 1357 | 2232 |
| September 25 2020 | 9345 | 194393 | 363 | 41 | 1449 | 2091 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.4 | 3% | 44 | 0.07% | 52 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 29 | 39.1 | 33.1% | 479 | 0.67% | 834 | 1.17% |
| 20-29 | 34 | 39.0 | 33.7% | 488 | 0.47% | 673 | 0.65% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 15.0 | 9.9% | 144 | 0.19% | 174 | 0.23% |
| 40-49 | 19 | 13.1 | 9.2% | 133 | 0.2% | 158 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 8.9 | 6.3% | 91 | 0.14% | 113 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 5.1 | 3.1% | 45 | 0.08% | 53 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.4 | 1.7% | 25 | 0.05% | 34 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 142 | 127.1 | 100% | 1449 | 0.27% | 2091 | 0.38% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 19 2020 | 99562 | 1325447 | 6619 | 1241 | 16228 | 19262 |
| September 20 2020 | 101227 | 1332102 | 6653 | 1242 | 16346 | 20034 |
| September 21 2020 | 102498 | 1337627 | 6692 | 1244 | 16248 | 20738 |
| September 22 2020 | 104170 | 1348492 | 6765 | 1251 | 16567 | 21693 |
| September 23 2020 | 105932 | 1360183 | 6821 | 1259 | 16747 | 22598 |
| September 24 2020 | 108324 | 1371070 | 6897 | 1265 | 18368 | 23443 |
| September 25 2020 | 110828 | 1383645 | 6962 | 1274 | 19524 | 24578 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 92 | 64.6 | 3.1% | 610 | 0.1% | 707 | 0.11% |
| 10-19 | 327 | 308.4 | 17.4% | 3396 | 0.45% | 4511 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 545 | 482.6 | 25.9% | 5062 | 0.67% | 6656 | 0.88% |
| 30-39 | 362 | 257.1 | 12.9% | 2517 | 0.33% | 3033 | 0.4% |
| 40-49 | 343 | 236.3 | 11.7% | 2283 | 0.33% | 2787 | 0.4% |
| 50-59 | 407 | 269.0 | 13.3% | 2604 | 0.32% | 3152 | 0.39% |
| 60-69 | 252 | 180.0 | 8.8% | 1719 | 0.23% | 2083 | 0.28% |
| 70+ | 176 | 137.6 | 6.8% | 1333 | 0.21% | 1649 | 0.26% |
| All ages | 2504 | 1935.6 | 100% | 19524 | 0.34% | 24578 | 0.42% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64.8 | 108.8 | 166.8 | 42.9 | 40.3 | 28.4% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.6 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 6.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.1 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 6.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120.4 | 301.5 | 319.1 | 81.6 | 66 | 31.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.2 | 117.3 | 64.8 | 127.1 | 234 | 6.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42.2 | 59.6 | 87.9 | 1935.6 | 1170.9 | 16.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 22.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-16 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1408"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges